The Clough Center was pleased to host Professor James Cronin (Boston College) on February 4, 2025, who spoke about the recent election results in the UK. This talk was part of the Spring 2025 Seminars on Elections. In this seminar, Professor Cronin explained the factors that led to the victory of the Labour Party and the defeat of the Tory Party in the July 2024 election.
Professor Cronin is a Research Professor of History who has long taught British, European, comparative, and international history. His research focuses on the relationship between states and social structures, political parties, and the rise and fall of the Cold War world order. His most recent work examines the fragility of “liberalism,” both domestically and internationally, in the post-Cold War, neoliberal world.
At the beginning of the seminar, Professor Jonathan Laurence, the Clough Center Director, provided an introduction to the discussion, emphasizing the significance of British political history in shaping today’s constitutional democracy. He highlighted three major turning points in Britain’s political history. First, the English Civil War (1642–51), often regarded as the conventional starting point for British modern political history, marked the beginning of checks and balances in modern governance. Second, the Glorious Revolution (1688) introduced numerous freedoms, including a lasting check on royal authority. Third, the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century spurred urbanization, transforming people’s bonds with society and increasing demands for political participation. For example, the working class gained a political voice. Then, in the late 19th century, the Labour Party emerged. British politics has continued to evolve and influence global affairs, from Margaret Thatcher’s deregulation policies in the 1980s to globalization. This informative introduction set the stage for Professor Cronin’s talk.
Professor Cronin structured his discussion around one central theme: the shift toward the right and the rise of right-wing populism in recent decades. However, he noted that the outcome of the July 2024 election deviated from this trend. This does not mean, however, that the UK is exempted from the rise of populism. To understand the distinction between the right-wing movements of the 1980s and today’s right-wing populists, Cronin suggested looking back at Brexit. Unlike today’s right-wing populists, the right-wing of the 1980s was not characterized by populism. Before 2016, the populist right had not found an effective vehicle to enter Parliament. The Tory Party has traditionally been a paternalistic, elitist, upper-class, and conservative party.
The populists established the UK Independence Party in the 1990s but remained on the margins and never found a home. The UK Independence Party was anti-Europe and inspired by Thatcher’s opposition to the idea of the EU. That changed in 2016 with the rise of Nigel Farage, who played a key role in the populist movement. Several contextual factors fueled the rise of populism. For example, in 2004, a significant wave of immigrants arrived from Eastern Europe, making immigration a highly salient political issue. Farage capitalized on this to push his rhetoric. Another major turning point was the Brexit referendum in 2016, which gained support from conservatives led by Boris Johnson. A substantial number of working-class voters backed the Tories, and in the 2019 election, Farage also threw his support behind the Conservative Party, contributing to Johnson’s victory.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party found itself in an awkward position, struggling to regain the support of many alienated voters. However, the Tory Party continued its austerity policies, cutting public sector funding, particularly in healthcare. Over time, these policies backfired, leading to widespread dissatisfaction. The Conservatives subsequently ousted Boris Johnson, replacing him first with Liz Truss and then with Rishi Sunak. Despite these leadership changes, the party persisted with austerity measures, further eroding public support.
Keir Starmer, in contrast, successfully took the Labour Party out of its previous state of decline.
The seminar concluded with a Q&A session, during which Professor Cronin addressed audience questions about the Labour Party’s stance on Brexit, the effects of wars in the Middle East, and the issue of refugees.
Photo: Oli Scarff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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